Week 6 Rankings, 2012

Ok, got some fun plots this week, if you’re into that sort of thing. I ran a simple correlation analysis on three quantities I’ve been tracking this season: Kenwood Power Rankings (KPR), Yahoo Power Rankings (YPR), and Standings. Last week I asked a question about whether our rankings are more influenced by standings or Yahoo’s perception of our team? The answer is clear: we primarily consider standings when voting for teams. KPR has a higher correlation with the actual standings than YPR, almost every week.

But perhaps a more interesting question to ask is whether KPR or YPR has better predictive value of how a team will be in the future. To look into this, I’ve plotted the correlation between YPR and standings 2 and 4 weeks later in figure 2, and the same for KPR in figure 3. Now the answer is more ambiguous. First the 2-week case: initially, YPR were much worse, but by weeks 3 & 4, they began approaching KPR. And in the 4-week case, they’ve even done better than KPR! Granted, it’s a two point data sample – we’ll see if this holds.

By the way, how well do past standings predict future standings? As you might guess given the high correlation between KPR and standings, the trends are very similar to KPR. It does appear to be ever so slightly worse, at least at this point in the season.

12. Cactus watch out! (Steve S.)
Average Ballot Position: 11.8 (0)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 8
Standings: 12
W-L: 1-5

11. Minions (Chris)
Average Ballot Position: 10.8 (0)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 12
Standings: 11
W-L: 1-5

10. Chi Don't Dance (Luke)
Average Ballot Position: 9.7 (0)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 11
Standings: 10
W-L: 2-4

9. MutantMennoMarauders (Brett)
Average Ballot Position: 8.0 (0)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 7
Standings: 8
W-L: 3-3

8. Bacon Cheeseburgers (Andy K.)
Average Ballot Position: 7.8 (0)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 6
Standings: 7
W-L: 3-3

7. Yakety Sacks (Jaron)
Average Ballot Position: 7.3 (0)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 10
Standings: 9
W-L: 3-3

6. Obese Geese (Steve E.)
Average Ballot Position: 6.0 (0)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 4
Standings: 6
W-L: 3-3

5. The Schmuckernators (Jason)
Average Ballot Position: 5.2 (0)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 9
Standings: 4
W-L: 4-2

4. Z Power (Andy G.)
Average Ballot Position: 4.7 (1)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 3
Standings: 5
W-L: 3-3

3. Stars (Dan B. H.)
Average Ballot Position: 2.8 (0)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 5
Standings: 3
W-L: 4-2

2. ChalicePastryCarnage (Adam)
Average Ballot Position: 2.0 (3)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 1
Standings: 2
W-L: 4-2

1. Sack Attack SuperPAC (Danny K.)
Average Ballot Position: 1.8 (2)
Yahoo Power Ranking: 2
Standings: 1
W-L: 5-1